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Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 August 2010

Press Release From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, August 13, 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in
the past 24 hours. New region 1099 (N17W41) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on day one (14 August). Unsettled to active
levels are expected on days two and three (15 -16 August) due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 084
Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 13 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 005/005-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

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