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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 February 2017

Press Release From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, February 19, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 618 km/s at 19/0104Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/2201Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 778 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (20 Feb, 21 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 078
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 082/082/082
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  009/010-008/010-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/35

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