From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, February 19, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 618 km/s at 19/0104Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/2201Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 778 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (20 Feb, 21 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 078
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 009/010-008/010-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/25/35
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