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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 May 2017

Press Release From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 02/1839Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/1104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/0252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8388 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (03 May, 04 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 May).

III.  Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 077
Predicted   03 May-05 May 078/077/077
90 Day Mean        02 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  009/012-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/20

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