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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 April 2020

Press Release From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 14/0945Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/0641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/0704Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr). III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Apr 069 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 070/068/068 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 005/005-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10


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