Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 April 2020

Press Release From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, April 16, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 459 km/s at 16/0132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 193 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr). III. Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Apr 069 Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 005/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10

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