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NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Jan 2002

Press Release From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, January 17, 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 17 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9775
(S06W99) produced isolated C-class subflares as it crossed the west
limb. Region 9782 (N06W08) showed a minor increase in area, but
produced no flares. It retained a moderate degree of magnetic
complexity with mixed polarities evident in its leader spots. Region
9785 (N10E01) showed spot growth and a minor increase in magnetic
complexity within its trailer portion, but produced no flares. New
Region 9787 (S08E85) rotated into view during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9782 and 9785 appear capable of
producing isolated low-level M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly
reached high levels during the latter half of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate
levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 212
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan  215/215/220
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 224
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  008/008-008/008-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

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