Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 16 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N13W15) produced
several flares throughout the day. The largest was an X2/3B at
15/2302 UTC. This flare was associated with significant radio output
that included 6400 sfu at 2695 MHz and type II/IV radio sweeps.
There was also an asymmetric full halo CME associated with this
event. The region remains large and magnetically complex, showing
little structural changes since this major flare. New Regions 721
(S03E14) and 722 (N19E04) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be high
to very high. Region 720 appears capable of additional major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A proton
event at greater than 10 MeV began at 16/0210 UTC in response to the
X2 flare mentioned in Part IA and remains in progress. Peak flux
observed so far was 312 pfu at 16/1935 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to increase to major to severe storm levels within the
next several hours with the arrival of the first of at least two
expected CMEs generated over the past few days by Region 720. The
proton event is expected to continue in progress.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
- Class M 80/80/80
- Class X 30/30/30
- Proton 99/80/75
- PCAF in progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Jan 145
- Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 150/155/160
- 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 011/022
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 015/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 050/060-030/030-030/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 50/50/30
- Minor storm 30/20/20
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 50/50/30
- Major-severe storm 15/10/10
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