Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 May 2005

Status Report From:
Posted: Sunday, May 15, 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 May 15 0020 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 758 (S10E90) has now rotated off the visible limb, and Region 759 (N11W07) has continued to produce several C-class events. The greater than 10 MeV solar particle flux at the time of this report had reached a maximum of 338 PFU on 14 May at 1945Z, and remains high.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 759 continues to have a high potential for M-class activity, and slight chance for further proton-producing flare activity. The current energetic proton flux is expected to remain elevated through 16 May.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels from 15 through 16 May, with a slight chance of an isolated period of major storm levels. The flare from Region 759 on 13 May at 1657Z, produced a significant, Earth-directed, coronal mass ejection. The shock is expected to arrive late on the 15th, and remain geoeffective through the 16th.

III. Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May

  • Class M 65/65/65
  • Class X 10/10/10
  • Proton 99/99/99
  • PCAF in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 14 May 100
  • Predicted 15 May-17 May 100/100/100
  • 90 Day Mean 14 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 021/027
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 010/009
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 045/060-040/045-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/25
  • Minor storm 50/45/15
  • Major-severe storm 15/20/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/30/30
  • Minor storm 40/40/25
  • Major-severe storm 35/25/05

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