Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Aug 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Aug 01 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 792 (N12E25) produced the largest flare during the period, a long duration M1/1f flare that occurred at 01/1351Z. This event generated an associated Tenflare (290 sfu), a Type IV radio sweep, and a CME that may have a weak geoeffective component. Region 792 underwent a decrease in sunspot number however, sunspot area has remained the same. This region continues to exhibit beta-gamma-delta magnetic features. Region 794 (S11E60) produced the second largest flare during the period, a C5 x-ray event that occurred at 01/1221Z. This region has shown growth in sunspot area over the interval. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 792 is capable of producing M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated activity may be attributed to a weak transient that was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 01/0500Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 27/2300Z ended at 01/1040Z, a maximum of 41 pfu occurred at 29/1715Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on 04 August due to a glancing blow from the CME that was associated with the M1/1f flare that occurred today.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug

• Class M 70/70/70
• Class X 15/15/15
• Proton 20/20/20
• PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Aug 111
• Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 110/105/105
• 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 010/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 015/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 012/015-005/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/15/30
• Minor storm 10/05/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/20/35
• Minor storm 15/05/15
• Major-severe storm 05/01/05

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