Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Aug 2005

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, August 1, 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Aug 01 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 792 (N12E25) produced the largest flare during the period, a long duration M1/1f flare that occurred at 01/1351Z. This event generated an associated Tenflare (290 sfu), a Type IV radio sweep, and a CME that may have a weak geoeffective component. Region 792 underwent a decrease in sunspot number however, sunspot area has remained the same. This region continues to exhibit beta-gamma-delta magnetic features. Region 794 (S11E60) produced the second largest flare during the period, a C5 x-ray event that occurred at 01/1221Z. This region has shown growth in sunspot area over the interval. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 792 is capable of producing M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated activity may be attributed to a weak transient that was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 01/0500Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 27/2300Z ended at 01/1040Z, a maximum of 41 pfu occurred at 29/1715Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on 04 August due to a glancing blow from the CME that was associated with the M1/1f flare that occurred today.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug

  • Class M 70/70/70
  • Class X 15/15/15
  • Proton 20/20/20
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 01 Aug 111
  • Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 110/105/105
  • 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 010/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 015/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 012/015-005/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/15/30
  • Minor storm 10/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/20/35
  • Minor storm 15/05/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/05

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