Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 13 2241 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 930 (S05W33) produced an X3.4/4B flare with a 44000 sfu 10 cm radio burst at 13/0240 UTC. Type II (1534 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were associated with this event, as well as a fast moving CME (estimated plane of sky speed of 1500 km/s). Region 930 has a strong delta configuration in the southern penumbral area of the leader spot.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to reach moderate to high levels. Isolated X-class flares are possible from Region 930.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels for the last 24 hours. A greater than 100 MeV proton event started at 13/0245 UTC, and reached a maximum of 88.7 pfu at 13/0525 UTC. A greater than 10 MeV proton event started at 13/0250 UTC, and reached a maximum of 698 pfu at 13/0925 UTC. These events are associated with the X3 event from Region 930. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach major to severe storm levels. Activity from the CME observed early on 13 December is expected to impact the geomagnetic field by mid to late UTC on day 1 (14 December) of the forecast period. Major to severe storm conditions are expected to continue early into 15 December. Levels should decrease to unsettled to minor storming by 16 December. The greater than 100 MeV and 10 MeV proton events now in progress are expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec

• Class M 60/60/60
• Class X 35/35/35
• Proton 99/99/75
• PCAF in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Dec 094
• Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 015/026
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 065/130-050/100-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/30
• Minor storm 25/25/15
• Major-severe storm 55/45/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/30
• Minor storm 20/20/25
• Major-severe storm 65/55/15

News from Commercial Space Watch