NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 May 2001


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 May 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9455
(S17W52) produced an M1/Sf flare at 16/1042 UTC as well as isolated
C-class subflares. Minor development was reported in the interior
portion of this region, where a mild mix of polarities has
persisted. Region 9454 (N13W08) also displayed a small degree of
magnetic complexity, but was stable through the period. Region 9458
(S12W72) produced a C2/Sf flare at 16/1550 UTC as it approached the
west limb. This flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep and
a CME, which did not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 9461
(N16E63), which was the return of old Region 9433 (responsible for
major flares during it previous two rotations), was relatively
stable during the period. At present it is classed as a simple
D-type group, but it is still too close to the east limb for a
detailed analysis. No new regions were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9455. There is also a slight chance for an
isolated M-class flare from Region 9454. At present, it is difficult
to gauge the flare potential of Region 9461, given its proximity to
the east limb. However, given its rich history of flare production,
it cannot be counted out as a source for energetic flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
active periods at high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux may reach high levels during the first half of the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 May 138
Predicted   17 May-19 May  145/150/155
90 Day Mean        16 May 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  010/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  012/020-012/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

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