NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 24 June 2001


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 24 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels. The largest
event being an optically uncorrelated C6 at 24/0455 UTC. Region 9511
(N10E00), after producing an X-class flare and three M-class events
on 22-23 June, has shown a dramatic decrease in activity and has
deteriorated to a simple beta magnetic classification. Only two
minor C-class events were produced by Region 9511 today. Region 9503
(N15W75) still retains a beta-gamma classification, but has only
produced a minor C-class event during the period. Regions 9512
(S22W09) and 9513 (N23E44) have increased in area and spot count but
have not produced any significance activity yet. No new regions were
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class events are possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for the first two
days of the period. Isolated active conditions, especially at higher
latitudes, may occur on the third day due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole and the resulting high speed stream impacting earth.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jun 195
Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun  195/190/185
90 Day Mean        24 Jun 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  008/010-008/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

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