NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 27 June 2001


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 27 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  There were only a few minor
C-class x-ray flares during the period, the largest being an
optically uncorrelated C2.  Regions 9518 (S48E45), 9519 (N17E23) and
9520 (S10E25) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the first two days of the period,
becoming quiet to unsettled by day three.  The effects of a
recurrent coronal hole are forecast for the first two days of the
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    30/40/40
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     01/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 148
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun  145/145/140
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  012/020-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

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