NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Jul 2001


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Newly numbered Region
9531 (S06E19) produced several C-class flares, the largest being a
C3/Sf at 08/1619 UTC.  This region has emerged rapidly over the past
24 hours, presently comprised of 13 spots in a Dao beta-gamma
configuration.  The second largest event of the day, an optically
uncorrelated C2 flare at 08/1141 UTC, appears per SOHO/EIT imagery
to have originated from Region 9530 (S20W52).  Region 9532 (N09W46)
was also numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 9531 is a likely source of additional C-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an
isolated active period observed at Boulder during 08/0600-0900 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
Isolated active periods may also occur due to transient fluctuations
in the IMF and moderate elevations of solar wind speed.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M    15/20/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jul 126
Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul  130/140/145
90 Day Mean        08 Jul 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

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