NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 23 Jul 2001


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 23 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low. Region 9545 (N08W72)
produced today's largest event, a C5/Sf at 0623 UTC. This region
continues to grow and exhibits bright plage as it approaches the
west limb. The group produced additional C-class events throughout
the day. Region 9543 (S25W31) continues to be the largest group on
the disk. The group shows the addition of several newly emerged
small spots, while the older large spots seem to be in decay. An
impressive CME was seen in the LASCO/C2 field of view just off the
northwest limb today at 1131 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there continues to be a slight chance for an
isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was a
brief active period from 0300-0600 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days, with a
fair chance for some active periods. The increase is anticipated
from possible coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 143
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul  140/140/135
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 156
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  012/015-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

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