NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 Oct 2001


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 29 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate to high.  Several
M-class events occurred during the period.  Region 9682 (N12E18)
produced the largest of these with an M3/1f at 29/1113 UTC.  The
event had an associated Type II radio sweep with a speed of 609
km/s.  This region has grown in both area and sunspot count since
yesterday and retains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  There is also a possibility of a major flare from
Region 9682.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 216
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov  210/205/200
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 201
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  034/041
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  010/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

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