Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11-02-2001


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 02 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. There were two M-class
events during the past 24 hours. The first was an M1/1f at 2352 UTC
from Region 9682 (N12W37), and the second was an M1/Sf at 0809 UTC
from Region 9687 (S19E61). Region 9682 continues to dominate the
disk in size and complexity. Region 9687, however, has exhibited
more frequent flare activity. Region 9684 (N06E00) appears to be
growing slowly and is developing some magnetic complexity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate, but there continues to be a chance for an isolated
major flare event during the next three days. Regions 9682 and 9687
are considered to be the most likely sources for energetic activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 214
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov  215/215/220
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 205
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  015/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  008/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  012/008-010/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05

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