NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Nov 2001


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 11 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate, due to a single M-class
event during the period. Region 9690 (S18W09) produced an M1/Sf
flare at 11/1103 UTC. Region 9690 remains a relatively large sunspot
group with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. This
region remained active through out the period, producing numerous
C-class flares and nearly continuous optical flaring. Spotless
Region 9686 (N15W78) produced a C5/Sf flare at 11/0035 UTC. Region
9697 (N11E76) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly moderate levels with the chance of an isolated major flare
from Region 9690.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was a mostly quiet levels with isolated
unsettled conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue to be at quiet to unsettled conditions. There
will be a slight chance for a proton flare during the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 234
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  235/235/230
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 213
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

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