:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N17E30)
produced an M2/1b at 29/0920Z along with occasional C-class flares.
Region 1515 (S17E43) grew significantly and is now considered a
Dkc-type region with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region
1515 produced a few C-class flares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (30
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (30 June) with a chance
for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled
to active levels on days two and three (01-02 July) with a chance
for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 117
Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 115/120/125
90 Day Mean 29 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 009/010-015/018-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/35