Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 August 2012


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1538 (S22E28), 1539
(S23E45), and 1540 (S27E60) produced C-class flares; the largest was
a C2/1f from Region 1539 at 0600Z associated with a Type II radio
sweep (estimated velocity: 622 km/s). A slow CME was observed off
the southeast limb at 0624Z but is not expected to be geoeffective.
Two new regions were numbered: Region 1540 (S27E60), a small bipolar
group and Region 1541 (S15E64), a small unipolar spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (August 04-06).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 140
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 140/135/135
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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