:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A few low level B-class
flares were observed. Three new regions were numbered: Region 1550
(S11W81) a Bxo-beta type group; Region 1551 (N13W14) a Bxo-beta type
group; and Region 1552 (S18E54) an Hsx-alpha type group. The
remaining numbered regions were stable and quiet. Several CMEs were
observed however none appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (22-24 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for days 1-3 (22-24 August).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 094
Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 21 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05