:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. A region around the east
limb produced an M1 flare at 1211Z along with multiple C-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
New Regions 1562 (S16E56) and 1563 (S25E71) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 31 August and 1 September with
a chance for minor to major storm levels at high latitudes. Activity
is expected to return to mostly quiet levels on 2 September with a
slight chance for active to minor storm levels at high latitudes.
Increased activity on days 1 and 2 is due to a coronal hole high
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 128
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 010/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05