:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare in the past
24 hours was a C3/SF flare at 0039Z from Region 1554 (N15W94).
Region 1560 (N03W05) remains the largest on the disk and the most
complex with a magnetic configuration of a beta-gamma.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event, associated with the disappearing
filament on 31 August, began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum flux of
41 pfu at 1925Z, and remained above threshold at the time of this
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 2 September. Activity is
expected to increase to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on 3 September with the arrival of the 31 August CME.
High latitudes have a chance of reaching severe storm levels on 3
September. On day 3 (4 September), activity is expected to decrease
to mostly unsettled conditions as CME effects wane.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 146
Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 145/140/140
90 Day Mean 01 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 007/018-020/030-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 05/25/20
Major-severe storm 01/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/40/10