:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1584 (S22W01) produced
the largest event of the period, a C1/Sf flare at 02/0904Z. A new
group, Region 1585 (S16E63) was numbered today as well. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (3-5 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (3-5 October).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 118
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 021/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05