Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 October 2012

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, October 6, 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1585 (S20E12) has been the most active region
producing multiple B-class events. No Earth directed CME's were
observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (07-09 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
remain at nominal levels, however energetic particle measurments by
the EPAM sensor, indicate a CME is currently traveling towards
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels on day one (07
October). An increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm periods is expected on days two and three (08-09
October) as the 05 October CME is forecasted to arrive.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 099
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 098/098/095
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 005/005-015/018-017/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/35
Minor storm 01/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 05/20/35

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