Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 October 2012 - Corrected Copy


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 08 2231 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2012
:::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::::::::::::
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. A M2 x-ray event occurred
at 08/1117Z from a region that has not yet rotated around the east
limb. Two CMEs were observed by LASCO C2/C3 coming off the east limb
early in the period, however neither are expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low on day 1 (9 October). Activity is forecast to increase to
low on day 2 (10 October) and low with the a chance for moderate
levels on day 3 (11 October) as the new region emerges around the
east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled levels before the
arrival of the CME from 05 October around 08/0445Z. At that time, a
transient passage was observed at ACE and was then followed by a
subsequent sudden impulse (21nT at Boulder) to Earth's magnetic
field at 08/0515Z. Conditions increased to active levels for a sole
period, before major storm levels began and lasted for two periods
(06-12Z). The remainder of the day saw a recovery back to unsettled
and active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be at minor storm levels (G1) on day 1 (09 October) as
CME effects continue. Days 2 and 3 (10-11 October) are forecast to
be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active levels
persisting, due to a coronal hole that is expected to move into a
potentially geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 05/10/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 103
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 024/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 017/020-007/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/25/15

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