Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 October 2012


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. A pair of M1 x-ray events
were produced at 09/2331Z and 10/0504Z by a new region which has not
yet rotated around the southeast limb. Region 1589 (N13E61) remains
the largest and most complex group on the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with the chance for moderate levels over the next three days (11-13
October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the period at minor storm conditions, due
to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream coupled with
residual and lingering CME effects. Mostly quiet conditions then
followed and continued for the remainder of the period. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels on day
one (11 October) as coronal hole effects continue. Mostly quiet
conditions are forecast for days two and three (12-13 October).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 112
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 032/050
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05

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