:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate for the past 24 hours.
An M1/Sf flare from Region 1598 (S12E70) occurred at 21/2003Z.
This region has shown some development as it has rotated further
onto the visible disk and remains the main area of interest. Region
1596 (N07E33) continues to be the most magnetically complex region
on the visible disk as an Eho/Beta-Gamma spot group, but has shown
slight decay in the trailer spots over the past 24 hours. All other
spots remain relatively stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed over the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (22-24 October) with isolated M-class flares
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained steady at
approximately 360 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field showed minor deviations of +/-4 nT. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days 1 and 2 (22-23 October)
due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Conditions are expected to return to quiet levels by day 3 (24
October) as the effects from the CH HSS begin to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 144
Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 145/140/140
90 Day Mean 21 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/05