NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Dec 2001


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Newly assigned Region 9733 (N14E67) produced an M3 flare at 0634
UTC. The event was associated with a CME: coronagraph observations
clearly show this CME is not Earth directed. The region produced
additional C-class level events. Region 9718 (S06W63) continues to
be the largest group on the disk but was relatively quiet and is
showing slight decay. Region 9727 (S22E03) continues to be
magnetically complex with a beta-gamma-delta, but was also stable
and appears to be gradually decaying.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 9733 and 9727 are expected to dominate the
activity, although Region 9718 could possibly contribute an
energetic event as well.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 221
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec  215/210/205
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 219
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  010/008-012/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01

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