Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 October 2012


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1596 (N06, L=152) and
1598 (S11W65) both produced C1 flares at 31/0507Z and 31/1139Z
respectively. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed during the reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A sudden
impulse of 13 nT was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at
31/1539Z due to the arrival of a CME. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
levels on day one (01 November) due to continued CME effects. Quiet
to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active conditions are
expected on days 2 and 3 (02 - 03 November) as effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 104
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 105/100/095
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 014/020-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/20/15
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 60/25/20

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