Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 November 2012

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, November 1, 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a few B-class events; the largest was a B7 at 1505Z from Region
1598 (S11W77). New Region 1603 (N08W18) emerged on the disk and is a
small, simple bipolar region. All the other regions on the disk were
small and void of activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours, with some isolated storm periods at high latitudes.
Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed continued
driving from a coronal mass ejection; the interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component turned southward at about 0346Z and attained
sustained maximum levels of about -12 nT for several hours. By the
end of the period Bz had weakened to values around -5 nT. Initial
solar wind velocity peaked at about 370 km/s and had declined to
about 310 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the first day (02 Nov) as the
current disturbance subsides. Quiet levels are expected to prevail
for the second and third days (03-04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 098
Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 01 Nov 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 007/010-007/007-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 25/10/05

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