Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 November 2012


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C2
flare at 05/1839Z from an unnumbered region around the southeast
limb. New Regions 1607 (N12W47) and 1608 (S20E62) were numbered and
both appear to be unipolar spot groups. The remaining spot groups
were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs (coronal mass
ejections) were observed during the reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (06-08
November).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 097
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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