Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 Nov 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 428 km/s at
05/2134Z. Total IMF reached 8.2 nT at 06/2031Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.8 nT at 06/1150Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 099
Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 06 Nov 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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