Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 Nov 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/0223Z from Region 1611 (N12E66). The M1 event was associated with a
CME off the east limb (not expected to be geoeffective) and a type II
radio sweep. A backsided, full-halo CME was observed later in the day
(first entering the C2 field of view at 08/1112Z); Stereo imagery
indicated that old Region 1598 was the source. There are currently 6
numbered sunspot regions on the disk
including two newly numbered groups: Region 1611 (N12E66) and 1612
(N06E71).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a slight chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and
three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 557 km/s at
07/2122Z, consistent with a coronal hole high speed stream. Total IMF
reached 5.3 nT at 08/0250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -2.9 nT at 08/1953Z. Solar wind velocity was steadily decreasing
during the latter part of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 104
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 105/110/115
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 004/005-007/007-007/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/10

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