Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 Nov 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
10/0504Z from Region 1608 (S20W03) which was also associated with a
coronal mass ejection (CME). An additional CME was observed off the west
limb at 10/1448Z but was from a region on the backside and is not
earthward directed. A new unnumbered spot region is rotating onto the
disk from east limb at about S21. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class event on days one, two, and three (11
Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 337 km/s at
09/2104Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be quiet with a slight chance of unsettled levels on day one (11
Nov). The CMEs from 09/1524Z and 10/0539Z are expected to merge and
arrive on 12 Nov around 1200Z which will increase geomagnetic activity
to active levels with a chance for minor storm periods on days two and
three (12 Nov, 13 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 122
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 130/135/140
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 007/007-017/030-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/35
Minor Storm 01/20/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/30
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/55/05

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