Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 Nov 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0404Z from Region 1613 (S23E18). Regions 1610 (S23W36) and 1611
(N13W14) have decayed and now have weak beta-gamma magnetic
complexities. Region 1613 experienced some decay in the penumbra and is
now only considered to be a simple bi-polar region. New Region 1616
(N21E61) was numbered during the period. There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 466 km/s at 14/1631Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 13/2226Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -19.1 nT at 14/0251Z. The
increase in activity was caused by prolonged period of -Bz. A solar
sector boundary crossing appears to have occurred at around 14/0245Z
followed by a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 267 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (15 Nov, 16
Nov, 17 Nov) due to continued effects from the negative polarity coronal
hole followed by the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole.

III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 142
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 010/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 023/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 011/012-011/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/30/35

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