Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 Nov 2012

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, November 19, 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
19/0228Z from Region 1618 (N09E28). Region 1618 has a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions
on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 433 km/s at
19/0114Z. Total IMF reached 6.2 nT at 19/2058Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4.9 nT at 19/0848Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1465 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 134
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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