Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 November 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M2/1f flare observed
at 28/2136Z from Region 1620 (S13W69). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk including newly-numbered Region 1625
(N13E50). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec) with a
chance for an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 403 km/s at
28/2126Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day 1 (30 November) due to a CME
passage from merged CMEs observed on 26 and 27 November. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day 2 (01 December) as CME effects
subside. Quiet conditions are expected on Day 3 (02 November).

III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 113
Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 110/105/100
90 Day Mean 29 Nov 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 012/015-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/10/05
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 55/15/05

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