Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
10/0558Z from Region 1630 (N19W11). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk. Two filament eruptions were observed off
the southeast limb early in the period. Both events have associated
CMEs; however neither event appears to be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 345 km/s at
10/0645Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/1431Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.1 nT at 10/1651Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 104
Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 10 Dec 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05

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