Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
12/0727Z from Region 1629 (N11W24). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 313 km/s at
12/1916Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/1046Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.1 nT at 12/2020Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 112
Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 110/115/120
90 Day Mean 12 Dec 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 007/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/10/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/05

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