Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1/Sf event observed at
13/1922Z from Region 1632 (N17W28). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 327 km/s at
13/0111Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/0123Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/2153Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for days one and two (14 Dec, 15 Dec). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected for day three (16 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 117
Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 13 Dec 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/005-005/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 10/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/10

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