Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/1947Z from Region 1631 (N21W46). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 400 km/s at
15/2035Z. Total IMF reached 11.5 nT at 15/0022Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8.9 nT at 15/0038Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at 15/0155Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (16 Dec, 17
Dec, 18 Dec) with a chance for active periods on 17 December.

III. Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 122
Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 15 Dec 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 007/008-012/016-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/20/15

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