Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/1614Z from Region 1635 (N11W05). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 346 km/s at
24/1518Z. Total IMF reached 5.9 nT at 24/1456Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.6 nT at 24/1516Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 160 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 113
Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 24 Dec 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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