Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 December 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/1933Z from Region 1638 (N12E43). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare for days 1-3 (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01
Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 349 km/s at
29/0722Z. Total IMF reached 6.7 nT at 29/0318Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.9 nT at 29/0319Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days 1-2 (30 Dec, 31 Dec). Quiet to unsettled
levels with a slight chance for an isolated active period is expected on
day 3 (01 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 104
Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 29 Dec 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 005/005-005/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/20

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