Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low
levels with a slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and
three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 322 km/s at
03/1909Z. Total IMF reached 5.5 nT at 03/1220Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.3 nT at 03/1209Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 129
Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 03 Jan 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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