Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/2138Z from Region 1640 (N28W48). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05
Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at
04/1909Z. Total IMF reached 6.3 nT at 04/0648Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4.2 nT at 04/0112Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 143
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

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