Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/0303Z from Region 1653 (N09E63). There are currently 14 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07
Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at
06/2036Z. Total IMF reached 9.4 nT at 06/1629Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.2 nT at 06/0803Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days 1-2 (07 Jan, 08 Jan). Quiet
levels are expected on day 3 (09 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 35/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 142
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 140/135/130
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 006/008-006/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 15/15/05

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