Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/0956Z from Region 1654 (N10E60). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels for days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan) with a
chance for moderate levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at
09/0444Z. Total IMF reached 6.6 nT at 08/2308Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.1 nT at 08/2309Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan,
12 Jan) with a chance of unsettled levels on day three (12 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 169
Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 175/175/175
90 Day Mean 09 Jan 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 006/005-005/005-007/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/15

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