Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0911Z from Region 1654 (N08E31). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at moderate
levels for the next three days (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 350 km/s at
11/1941Z. Total IMF reached 8.7 nT at 11/2036Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7.3 nT at 11/2029Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (12 Jan, 13
Jan, 14 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 172
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 175/170/170
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 15/15/05

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