Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
12/0224Z from Region 1654 (N08E18). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 418 km/s at
12/2037Z. Total IMF reached 8.8 nT at 11/2130Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7.8 nT at 11/2130Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (13 Jan), and quiet for
days two and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 169
Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 170/165/160
90 Day Mean 12 Jan 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/10/10
Major-severe storm 15/05/05

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